Cape Verde Islands vs Mali: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional de Cabo Verde, Praia
The Footlab model makes Cape Verde Islands the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Mali. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cape Verde Islands vs Mali?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Cape Verde Islands (1,598) and Mali (1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cape Verde Islands have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeats; Mali have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Uruguay(away) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Spain(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bermuda(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Serbia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Iran(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Comoros(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
How many goals should we expect?
Cape Verde Islands score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mali score 1.0 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Verde Islands | 1.7 | 0.8 | 9 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Mali | 1.0 | 0.6 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cape Verde Islands sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and Mali sit 1st (14 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mali | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Cape Verde Islands | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cape Verde Islands vs Mali?
- The Footlab model makes Cape Verde Islands the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Mali.
- Where and when is Cape Verde Islands vs Mali played?
- Cape Verde Islands vs Mali is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional de Cabo Verde, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.