Cape Verde Islands vs Mali: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional de Cabo Verde, Praia
The Footlab AI model makes Mali the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Cape Verde Islands. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mali wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,745 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cape Verde Islands vs Mali?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Cape Verde Islands (1,571) and Mali (1,660).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cape Verde Islands vs Mali
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cape Verde Islands
4-1-4-1- 9Gilson Benchimol
- 20Ryan Mendes
- 6Kevin Pina
- 18Telmo Arcanjo
- 16José Luís Rocha Tavares
- 25A. Santos
- 3Diney Borges
- 13S. Lopes Cabral
- 2Wagner Pina
- 5Logan Costa
- 1Vózinha
Mali
4-2-3-1- 17L. Sinayoko
- 8M. Sangaré
- 7N. Dorgeles
- 10K. Doumbia
- 12A. Tia
- 23A. Dieng
- 14N. Gassama
- 25O. Camara
- 2H. Traoré
- 15D. Guindo
- 16D. Diarra
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 01:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cape Verde Islands have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Mali have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Rwanda(home) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Mali(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 2-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Uruguay(away) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Liberia(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(home) | 3-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Iran(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Cape Verde Islands wins, 0 draws, 1 Mali win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Mali 3-1 Cape Verde Islands | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Mali vs Cape Verde Islands on Sep 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cape Verde Islands score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mali score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Verde Islands | 1.5 | 1.3 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Mali | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cape Verde Islands sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (0 points from 2 matches) and Mali sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mali | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Cape Verde Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
A question about Cape Verde Islands vs Mali?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cape Verde Islands vs Mali?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mali the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Cape Verde Islands.
- Where and when is Cape Verde Islands vs Mali played?
- Cape Verde Islands vs Mali is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional de Cabo Verde, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.