Liberia vs Rwanda: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium, Monrovia
The Footlab AI model makes Liberia the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Rwanda. The most likely score is 1-1. If Liberia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Liberia vs Rwanda?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Liberia (1,425) and Rwanda (1,494).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Liberia vs Rwanda
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Liberia
3-5-2- 11S. Nimely
- 10A. Kosiah
- 19O. Dorley
- 17F. Nyenetue
- 6Salomon Tweh
- 4N. Kenneh
- 8D. Teah
- 3E. Fully
- 24S. Dweh
- 20M. Sangare
- 1J. Yeanaye
Rwanda
4-2-3-1- 7Abeddy Biramahire
- 22J. Kwizera
- 15Bonheur Mugisha
- 13L. Mickels
- 20J. Mickels
- 11Kevin Muhire
- 5A. Mutsinzi
- 25P. Kavita
- 2Claude Niyomugabo
- 16Clément Niyigena
- 1F. Ntwari
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Liberia have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Rwanda have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Mali(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Rwanda(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Sierra Leone(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sierra Leone(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Libya(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Liberia(home) | 3-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Grenada(home) | 4-0 | FIFA Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Liberia wins, 0 draws, 1 Rwanda win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Rwanda 3-1 Liberia | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Liberia score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Rwanda score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberia | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Rwanda | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Liberia sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (0 points from 2 matches) and Rwanda sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rwanda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Liberia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
A question about Liberia vs Rwanda?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Liberia vs Rwanda?
- The Footlab AI model makes Liberia the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Rwanda.
- Where and when is Liberia vs Rwanda played?
- Liberia vs Rwanda is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.