Liberia vs Rwanda: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium, Monrovia
The Footlab model makes Liberia the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Rwanda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Liberia vs Rwanda?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Liberia (1,442) and Rwanda (1,469).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Liberia have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Rwanda have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Sierra Leone(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sierra Leone(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Libya(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Benin(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Guinea(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Grenada(home) | 4-0 | FIFA Series |
| Oct 14, 2025 | South Africa(away) | 0-3 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Benin(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Zimbabwe(away) | 1-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Liberia score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rwanda score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberia | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Rwanda | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Liberia sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and Rwanda sit 3rd (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rwanda | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| 4 | Liberia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Liberia vs Rwanda?
- The Footlab model makes Liberia the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Rwanda.
- Where and when is Liberia vs Rwanda played?
- Liberia vs Rwanda is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.