Mali vs Liberia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 6Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade 26 Mars, Bamako
The Footlab AI model makes Mali the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Liberia. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mali vs Liberia?
Mali starts as the favourite with a 235-point Elo edge (1,660 vs 1,425).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mali vs Liberia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mali
4-2-3-1- 17L. Sinayoko
- 8M. Sangaré
- 7N. Dorgeles
- 10K. Doumbia
- 12A. Tia
- 23A. Dieng
- 14N. Gassama
- 25O. Camara
- 2H. Traoré
- 15D. Guindo
- 16D. Diarra
Liberia
3-5-2- 11S. Nimely
- 10A. Kosiah
- 19O. Dorley
- 17F. Nyenetue
- 6Salomon Tweh
- 4N. Kenneh
- 8D. Teah
- 3E. Fully
- 24S. Dweh
- 20M. Sangare
- 1J. Yeanaye
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:16 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mali have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Liberia have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Liberia(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(home) | 3-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Iran(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Mali(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Rwanda(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Sierra Leone(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sierra Leone(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Libya(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Mali win, 0 draws, 0 Liberia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Liberia 0-1 Mali | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Mali score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Liberia score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mali | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Liberia | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mali sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (6 points from 2 matches) and Liberia sit 4th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mali | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Liberia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
A question about Mali vs Liberia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mali vs Liberia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mali the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Liberia.
- Where and when is Mali vs Liberia played?
- Mali vs Liberia is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade 26 Mars, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.