Rwanda vs Cape Verde Islands: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 6Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Amahoro, Kigali
The Footlab model makes Cape Verde Islands the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Rwanda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rwanda vs Cape Verde Islands?
Cape Verde Islands starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,598 vs 1,469).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rwanda have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Cape Verde Islands have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Grenada(home) | 4-0 | FIFA Series |
| Oct 14, 2025 | South Africa(away) | 0-3 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Benin(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Zimbabwe(away) | 1-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Uruguay(away) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Spain(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bermuda(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Serbia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Rwanda win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Cape Verde Islands win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2020 | Rwanda 0-0 Cape Verde Islands | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 12, 2020 | Cape Verde Islands 0-0 Rwanda | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Rwanda vs Cape Verde Islands on Nov 17, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Rwanda score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cape Verde Islands score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rwanda | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 1.7 | 0.8 | 9 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rwanda sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (8 points from 6 matches) and Cape Verde Islands sit 4th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rwanda | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| 4 | Cape Verde Islands | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rwanda vs Cape Verde Islands?
- The Footlab model makes Cape Verde Islands the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Rwanda.
- Where and when is Rwanda vs Cape Verde Islands played?
- Rwanda vs Cape Verde Islands is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Amahoro, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.