Little Oakley vs Biggleswade: prediction and stats
FA Trophy1st Round QualifyingKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Memorial Ground Little Oakley, Little Oakley, Essex
The Footlab model makes Biggleswade the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Little Oakley. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Little Oakley vs Biggleswade?
Biggleswade starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,792 vs 1,654).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 14 matches in all competitions, Little Oakley have 6 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Biggleswade have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | Cockfosters(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Baldock Town(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Baldock Town(away) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Berkhamsted(home) | 1-4 | FA Cup |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Dunstable Town(home) | 3-1 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Flackwell Heath(away) | 2-0 | Non League Div One - Southern Central |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Beaconsfield Town(home) | 6-1 | Non League Div One - Southern Central |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Northwood(away) | 3-1 | Non League Div One - Southern Central |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Ware(home) | 5-1 | Non League Div One - Southern Central |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Hadley(away) | 2-0 | Non League Div One - Southern Central |
How many goals should we expect?
Little Oakley score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 14; Biggleswade score 3.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Oakley | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/14 | 9/14 |
| Biggleswade | 3.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 14 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Little Oakley vs Biggleswade?
- The Footlab model makes Biggleswade the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Little Oakley.
- Where and when is Little Oakley vs Biggleswade played?
- Little Oakley vs Biggleswade is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Memorial Ground Little Oakley, in the FA Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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