Llantwit Major vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 5Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Windmill Ground, Llantwit Major
The Footlab model makes Llantwit Major the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Llantwit Major vs Caerphilly Athletic?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Llantwit Major (1,481) and Caerphilly Athletic (1,503).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llantwit Major have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 2, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Caldicot Town(home) | 1-3 | Welsh Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llantwit Major | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 5/8 | 6/8 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Llantwit Major sit 16th in FAW Championship (0 points from 4 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 12th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Llantwit Major vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes Llantwit Major the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Llantwit Major vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Llantwit Major vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on February 27, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 28, 2026Treowen StarsvsCardiff Draconians
- Aug 28, 2026llanelli AFCvsCarmarthen Town
- Aug 28, 2026Swansea UniversityvsPontypridd Town
- Aug 28, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCaerau (Ely)
- Aug 28, 2026Newport CityvsYnyshir Albions
- Aug 28, 2026Aberystwyth TownvsPontardawe Town
- Aug 28, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsAfan Lido