Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot

Baglan Dragons

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (1,652 vs 1,470).

Baglan Dragons win13 %

Draw18 %

Caerau (Ely) win69 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Baglan Dragons
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Newport City(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Llantwit Major(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	0-0	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	1-1	FAW Championship

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Baglan Dragons win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 14, 2026	Baglan Dragons 0-5 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Sep 17, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Aug 22, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 1-0 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Jan 11, 2025	Baglan Dragons 2-1 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Nov 1, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Jan 20, 2024	Baglan Dragons 2-0 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) on Mar 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Baglan Dragons	0.5	2.1	4	4/15	7/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Baglan Dragons.
Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.