Match

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely): result 3-1 and analysis

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot

Baglan Dragons
3-1
Caerau (Ely)

Full time

What was the result of Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?

Baglan Dragons won 3-1 on August 28, 2026.

Goalscorers

  • 11′635557Baglan Dragons
  • 25′635557Baglan Dragons
  • 32′T. ParkerCaerau (Ely)
  • 38′635557Baglan Dragons

What had the model predicted before the match?

Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Caerau (Ely) win at 59%: prediction missed. Most likely score announced: 1-2. Actual score: 3-1.

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Baglan Dragons
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 21, 2026Newport City(away)1-0FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026Llantwit Major(away)1-0FAW Championship
Aug 9, 2026Swansea University(home)0-3FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026Trethomas Bluebirds(away)0-0FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026Trethomas Bluebirds(home)1-1FAW Championship
Caerau (Ely)
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 21, 2026Swansea University(home)1-5FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026Trethomas Bluebirds(away)4-2FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026Ynyshir Albions(home)1-1FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026Carmarthen Town(away)3-4FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026Barnstaple Town(home)4-4Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Baglan Dragons wins, 0 draws, 4 Caerau (Ely) wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 14, 2026Baglan Dragons 0-5 Caerau (Ely)FAW Championship
Sep 17, 2025Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Baglan DragonsFAW Championship
Aug 22, 2025Caerau (Ely) 1-0 Baglan DragonsFAW Championship
Jan 11, 2025Baglan Dragons 2-1 Caerau (Ely)FAW Championship
Nov 1, 2024Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Baglan DragonsFAW Championship
Jan 20, 2024Baglan Dragons 2-0 Caerau (Ely)FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) on Mar 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Baglan Dragons0.52.144/157/15
Caerau (Ely)2.11.568/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (17 points from 11 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Caerau (Ely)10613221819
5Baglan Dragons11524121217

A question about Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?

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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Baglan Dragons and Caerau (Ely)

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