llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stebonheath Park, Llanelli, Carmarthenshire
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for llanelli AFC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate llanelli AFC (1,555) and Carmarthen Town (1,612).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, llanelli AFC have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; Carmarthen Town have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 llanelli AFC win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Carmarthen Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 1-1 llanelli AFC | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2024 | llanelli AFC 1-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 0-1 llanelli AFC | FAW Championship |
| Aug 18, 2023 | llanelli AFC 4-3 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Carmarthen Town 1-6 llanelli AFC | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Carmarthen Town 1-3 llanelli AFC | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Carmarthen Town vs llanelli AFC on Nov 30, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
llanelli AFC score 0.7 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| llanelli AFC | 0.7 | 2.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
llanelli AFC sit 15th in FAW Championship (1 points from 4 matches) and Carmarthen Town sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 15 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for llanelli AFC.
- Where and when is llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town played?
- llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stebonheath Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 28, 2026Treowen StarsvsCardiff Draconians
- Aug 28, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCaerau (Ely)
- Aug 28, 2026Newport CityvsYnyshir Albions
- Aug 28, 2026Swansea UniversityvsPontypridd Town
- Aug 28, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsAfan Lido
- Aug 28, 2026Aberystwyth TownvsPontardawe Town
- Feb 27, 2027Llantwit MajorvsCaerphilly Athletic