Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 54%, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Cardiff Draconians. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Treowen Stars (1,559) and Cardiff Draconians (1,527).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Treowen Stars have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Cardiff Draconians have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Treowen Stars win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Cardiff Draconians win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Treowen Stars 1-0 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Cardiff Draconians 4-3 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treowen Stars | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Treowen Stars sit 3rd in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Cardiff Draconians sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
| 10 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians?
- The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 54%, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Cardiff Draconians.
- Where and when is Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians played?
- Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians is played on August 28, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 28, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCaerau (Ely)
- Aug 28, 2026Newport CityvsYnyshir Albions
- Aug 28, 2026Swansea UniversityvsPontypridd Town
- Aug 28, 2026llanelli AFCvsCarmarthen Town
- Aug 28, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsAfan Lido
- Aug 28, 2026Aberystwyth TownvsPontardawe Town
- Feb 27, 2027Llantwit MajorvsCaerphilly Athletic