Łomża vs Jagiellonia II: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Łomża
The Footlab model makes Łomża the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Jagiellonia II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Łomża vs Jagiellonia II?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Łomża (1,842) and Jagiellonia II (1,773).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Łomża have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Jagiellonia II have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(home) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki(away) | 2-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Weszlo(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(away) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Łomża win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Jagiellonia II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Jagiellonia II 0-2 Łomża | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Łomża 2-0 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Łomża 2-2 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Jagiellonia II 2-1 Łomża | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Jagiellonia II 1-4 Łomża | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Jagiellonia II 0-3 Łomża | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Jagiellonia II vs Łomża on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Łomża score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Jagiellonia II score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Łomża | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Jagiellonia II | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Łomża sit 15th in III Liga - Group 1 (2 points from 5 matches) and Jagiellonia II sit 10th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 15 | Łomża | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Łomża vs Jagiellonia II?
- The Footlab model makes Łomża the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Jagiellonia II.
- Where and when is Łomża vs Jagiellonia II played?
- Łomża vs Jagiellonia II is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 5, 2026Wigry SuwałkivsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Sep 5, 2026Pelikan ŁowiczvsSwit
- Sep 5, 2026Lechia T. MazowieckivsTroszyn
- Sep 5, 2026Mławianka MławavsŁKS Łódź II
- Sep 5, 2026Warta SieradzvsOlimpia Elbląg
- Sep 5, 2026Widzew IIvsWisła Płock II
- Sep 5, 2026Mazovia Minsk MazowieckivsOlimpia Zambrów
- Sep 5, 2026WeszlovsZąbkovia Ząbki