Łomża vs Ząbkovia Ząbki: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Łomża
The Footlab model makes Łomża the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Ząbkovia Ząbki. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Łomża vs Ząbkovia Ząbki?
Łomża starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,842 vs 1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Łomża have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Ząbkovia Ząbki have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(home) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki(away) | 2-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Weszlo(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(away) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 4-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Widzew II(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Olimpia Zambrów(away) | 0-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Łomża win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ząbkovia Ząbki win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Łomża 3-0 Ząbkovia Ząbki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Ząbkovia Ząbki 2-0 Łomża | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Łomża vs Ząbkovia Ząbki on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Łomża score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ząbkovia Ząbki score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Łomża | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Ząbkovia Ząbki | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Łomża sit 15th in III Liga - Group 1 (2 points from 5 matches) and Ząbkovia Ząbki sit 13th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 15 | Łomża | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Łomża vs Ząbkovia Ząbki?
- The Footlab model makes Łomża the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Ząbkovia Ząbki.
- Where and when is Łomża vs Ząbkovia Ząbki played?
- Łomża vs Ząbkovia Ząbki is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Wigry SuwałkivsWidzew II
- Sep 19, 2026Pelikan ŁowiczvsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Sep 19, 2026Lechia T. MazowieckivsSwit
- Sep 19, 2026ŁKS Łódź IIvsJagiellonia II
- Sep 19, 2026Mławianka MławavsTroszyn
- Sep 19, 2026Warta SieradzvsOlimpia Zambrów
- Sep 19, 2026Mazovia Minsk MazowieckivsWisła Płock II
- Sep 19, 2026WeszlovsOlimpia Elbląg