Mławianka Mława vs Troszyn: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, Mlawa
The Footlab model makes Mławianka Mława the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Troszyn. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mławianka Mława vs Troszyn?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Mławianka Mława (1,714) and Troszyn (1,748).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mławianka Mława have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Troszyn have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Łomża(away) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(home) | 1-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(home) | 1-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Widzew II(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mławianka Mława win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Troszyn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Mławianka Mława 2-2 Troszyn | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Troszyn 2-2 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Mławianka Mława vs Troszyn on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mławianka Mława score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Troszyn score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mławianka Mława | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Troszyn | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mławianka Mława sit 14th in III Liga - Group 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and Troszyn sit 17th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mławianka Mława | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mławianka Mława vs Troszyn?
- The Footlab model makes Mławianka Mława the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Troszyn.
- Where and when is Mławianka Mława vs Troszyn played?
- Mławianka Mława vs Troszyn is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Wigry SuwałkivsWidzew II
- Sep 19, 2026Pelikan ŁowiczvsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Sep 19, 2026Lechia T. MazowieckivsSwit
- Sep 19, 2026ŁKS Łódź IIvsJagiellonia II
- Sep 19, 2026Warta SieradzvsOlimpia Zambrów
- Sep 19, 2026ŁomżavsZąbkovia Ząbki
- Sep 19, 2026Mazovia Minsk MazowieckivsWisła Płock II
- Sep 19, 2026WeszlovsOlimpia Elbląg