Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC)Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, California
The Footlab model makes Los Angeles Galaxy the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for San Diego. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Los Angeles Galaxy (1,764) and San Diego (1,809).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Los Angeles Galaxy have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; San Diego have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CF Montreal(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(home) | 3-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 3-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Los Angeles Galaxy win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 San Diego win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | San Diego 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Los Angeles Galaxy 0-2 San Diego | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy on May 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Los Angeles Galaxy score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; San Diego score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| San Diego | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Los Angeles Galaxy sit 12th in Major League Soccer (26 points from 22 matches) and San Diego sit 11th (27 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Diego | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 37 | 32 | 27 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego?
- The Footlab model makes Los Angeles Galaxy the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for San Diego.
- Where and when is Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego played?
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC) at Dignity Health Sports Park, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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