Match

Loughborough University vs Barwell: prediction and stats

FA Trophy1st Round QualifyingKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Loughborough University Football Stadium, Loughborough, Leicestershire

Loughborough UniversityBarwell

The Footlab model makes Loughborough University the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Barwell. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Loughborough University vs Barwell?

Loughborough University starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,687 vs 1,582).

Loughborough University win56 %
Draw23 %
Barwell win21 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Loughborough University have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Barwell have 2, 0 and 13.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Loughborough University
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Apr 25, 2026Boldmere St. Michaels(away)2-1Non League Div One - Northern Midlands
Apr 18, 2026Racing Club Warwick(home)0-1Non League Div One - Northern Midlands
Apr 11, 2026Belper Town(home)2-1Non League Div One - Northern Midlands
Apr 6, 2026Shepshed Dynamo(away)2-0Non League Div One - Northern Midlands
Apr 4, 2026Rugby Borough(home)1-0Non League Div One - Northern Midlands
Barwell
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Apr 25, 2026Bishop's Stortford(home)3-1Non League Premier - Southern Central
Apr 18, 2026Bury Town(home)0-3Non League Premier - Southern Central
Apr 11, 2026Needham Market(away)1-2Non League Premier - Southern Central
Apr 6, 2026Spalding United(home)0-2Non League Premier - Southern Central
Apr 3, 2026Alvechurch(away)1-2Non League Premier - Southern Central

How many goals should we expect?

Loughborough University score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Barwell score 1.2 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Loughborough University1.80.968/159/15
Barwell1.22.7010/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Loughborough University vs Barwell?
The Footlab model makes Loughborough University the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Barwell.
Where and when is Loughborough University vs Barwell played?
Loughborough University vs Barwell is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Loughborough University Football Stadium, in the FA Trophy.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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