Mação vs Gavionenses: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Macau Olympic Complex Stadium, Taipa
The Footlab model makes Gavionenses the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Mação. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mação vs Gavionenses?
Gavionenses is a heavy favourite: 1,705 Elo points against 1,257 — a 448-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mação have 1 wins, 1 draws and 13 defeats; Gavionenses have 0, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Tanzania(home) | 0-6 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Aruba(away) | 1-4 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Hong Kong(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Guam(home) | 1-2 | EAFF E-1 Football Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Brunei(home) | 0-1 | Asian Cup - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2024 | Arronches e Benfica(home) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Alverca(away) | 0-13 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2022 | União Santarém(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 25, 2016 | Mortágua(home) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-10 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Mação score 0.4 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gavionenses score 0.4 and concede 6.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mação | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Gavionenses | 0.4 | 6.0 | 0 | 1/5 | 4/5 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mação vs Gavionenses?
- The Footlab model makes Gavionenses the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Mação.
- Where and when is Mação vs Gavionenses played?
- Mação vs Gavionenses is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.