Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Kashiwa Reysol. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Machida Zelvia (2,114) and Kashiwa Reysol (2,024).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Kashiwa Reysol have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 4-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Machida Zelvia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Kashiwa Reysol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Machida Zelvia 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| May 17, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 3-0 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| May 3, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 2-0 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kashiwa Reysol score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Kashiwa Reysol sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Kashiwa Reysol.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsJEF United Chiba
- Sep 19, 2026V-varen NagasakivsCerezo Osaka
- Sep 19, 2026UrawavsTokyo Verdy
- Sep 19, 2026FC TokyovsNagoya Grampus
- Sep 19, 2026Gamba OsakavsVissel Kobe
- Sep 19, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsKashima
- Sep 19, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsMito Hollyhock
- Sep 19, 2026Fagiano OkayamavsKyoto Sanga