Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu, Kawasaki
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Kawasaki Frontale. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima?
Kashima starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 1,959).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kawasaki Frontale have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(home) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Vanraure Hachinohe(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Kawasaki Frontale win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Kashima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale 0-2 Kashima | J1 League |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Kashima 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Kawasaki Frontale 2-1 Kashima | J1 League |
| May 11, 2025 | Kashima 2-1 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Kawasaki Frontale 1-3 Kashima | J1 League |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Kashima 2-1 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kawasaki Frontale score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Kashima | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kawasaki Frontale sit 14th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 14 | Kawasaki Frontale | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima?
- The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Kawasaki Frontale.
- Where and when is Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima played?
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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