Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Avispa Fukuoka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,924).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avispa Fukuoka have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 2-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Avispa Fukuoka win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka 2-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Jun 8, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J-League Cup |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J-League Cup |
| May 3, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Apr 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Avispa Fukuoka score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Avispa Fukuoka.
- Where and when is Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Best Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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