Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka played?

V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki

Cerezo Osaka

The Footlab model makes Cerezo Osaka the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?

Cerezo Osaka starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (2,019 vs 1,910).

V-varen Nagasaki win33 %

Draw24 %

Cerezo Osaka win43 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, V-varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Cerezo Osaka have 9, 4 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

Cerezo Osaka
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	FC Gifu(home)	3-1	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Shimizu S-pulse(home)	1-0	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Avispa Fukuoka(away)	0-3	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 29, 2026	Borussia Dortmund(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 V-varen Nagasaki win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Cerezo Osaka win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 9, 2026	Cerezo Osaka 3-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
Feb 28, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki 1-0 Cerezo Osaka	J1 League
Aug 19, 2018	V-varen Nagasaki 0-2 Cerezo Osaka	J1 League
May 5, 2018	Cerezo Osaka 3-1 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
Sep 11, 2016	Cerezo Osaka 2-0 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Jun 8, 2016	V-varen Nagasaki 1-2 Cerezo Osaka	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki on May 9, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15
Cerezo Osaka	1.9	1.1	4	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Cerezo Osaka sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Cerezo Osaka	3	2	0	1	3	4	6
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?: The Footlab model makes Cerezo Osaka the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka played?: V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.