Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki played?

Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on November 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo

Machida Zelvia

V-varen Nagasaki

The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki?

Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (2,116 vs 1,910).

Machida Zelvia win60 %

Draw23 %

V-varen Nagasaki win17 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; V-varen Nagasaki have 5, 2 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Machida Zelvia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Urawa(home)	3-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	JEF United Chiba(away)	4-0	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	5-1	J1 League
Jul 18, 2026	Fujieda MYFC(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nagoya Grampus(home)	2-1	J1 League

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Mito Hollyhock(away)	1-0	J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Machida Zelvia win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 V-varen Nagasaki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Sep 23, 2023	V-varen Nagasaki 0-6 Machida Zelvia	J2 League
Jun 11, 2023	Machida Zelvia 4-1 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Jul 17, 2022	Machida Zelvia 1-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Apr 9, 2022	V-varen Nagasaki 1-0 Machida Zelvia	J2 League
Sep 18, 2021	Machida Zelvia 3-3 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Apr 17, 2021	V-varen Nagasaki 0-3 Machida Zelvia	J2 League

Last archived meeting: V-varen Nagasaki vs Machida Zelvia on Sep 23, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; V-varen Nagasaki score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Machida Zelvia	1.9	0.7	6	8/15	7/15
V-varen Nagasaki	1.2	1.5	2	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki?: The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki played?: Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on November 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.