FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Nagoya Grampus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,001) and Nagoya Grampus (1,951).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Nagoya Grampus have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Tokyo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Nagoya Grampus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | FC Tokyo 2-1 Nagoya Grampus | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 1-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Feb 26, 2025 | FC Tokyo 3-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | FC Tokyo 4-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| May 15, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 3-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Jun 24, 2023 | FC Tokyo 2-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus on Jul 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tokyo score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Nagoya Grampus sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Nagoya Grampus.
- Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus played?
- FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus is played on September 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsJEF United Chiba
- Sep 19, 2026V-varen NagasakivsCerezo Osaka
- Sep 19, 2026UrawavsTokyo Verdy
- Sep 19, 2026Gamba OsakavsVissel Kobe
- Sep 19, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsKashima
- Sep 19, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsMito Hollyhock
- Sep 19, 2026Machida ZelviavsKashiwa Reysol
- Sep 19, 2026Fagiano OkayamavsKyoto Sanga