Caldas vs SC Covilha: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 17Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha
The Footlab AI model makes SC Covilha the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Caldas. The most likely score is 1-1. If SC Covilha wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caldas vs SC Covilha?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Caldas (1,856) and SC Covilha (1,842).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caldas vs SC Covilha
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caldas
4-3-3- 17Goncas
- 9G. Chaves
- 77G. Pio
- 80M. Palmerio
- 5R. Correia
- 22T. Serrazina
- 3Nando
- 20G. Lourenco
- 56Caio Amaral
- 25L. Farinha
- 12D. Almeida
SC Covilha
4-3-3- 99C. Niang
- 18J. Pacheco
- 7Danny
- 6A. Barbosa
- 5H. Innusah
- 8R. Coelho
- 2Kauan Gomes
- 45M. Aidara
- 23Emerson Gomes
- 22E. Gomes Silva
- 1Gustavo Galil
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:01 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caldas have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; SC Covilha have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Sintrense(home) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 2-4 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Oliveirense(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Caldas win, 2 draws, 3 SC Covilha wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Caldas 1-1 SC Covilha | Liga 3 |
| Feb 22, 2026 | SC Covilha 1-0 Caldas | Liga 3 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | SC Covilha 2-1 Caldas | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Caldas 2-1 SC Covilha | Liga 3 |
| May 4, 2025 | SC Covilha 1-1 Caldas | Liga 3 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Caldas 0-1 SC Covilha | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Caldas score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; SC Covilha score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caldas | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| SC Covilha | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caldas sit 7th in Liga 3 (7 points from 6 matches) and SC Covilha sit 8th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
A question about Caldas vs SC Covilha?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caldas vs SC Covilha?
- The Footlab AI model makes SC Covilha the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Caldas.
- Where and when is Caldas vs SC Covilha played?
- Caldas vs SC Covilha is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Mata, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.