Malawi vs South Sudan: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe
The Footlab model makes Malawi the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for South Sudan. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malawi vs South Sudan?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Malawi (1,446) and South Sudan (1,354).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malawi have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; South Sudan have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Botswana(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zambia U23(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Lesotho(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Djibouti(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Djibouti(away) | 4-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Syria(away) | 0-2 | Arab Cup |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Togo(home) | 0-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Senegal(home) | 0-5 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Malawi win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 South Sudan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2021 | South Sudan 0-1 Malawi | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 13, 2019 | Malawi 1-0 South Sudan | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 27, 2015 | South Sudan 2-0 Malawi | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
Last archived meeting: South Sudan vs Malawi on Mar 24, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Malawi score 0.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; South Sudan score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malawi | 0.5 | 0.8 | 5 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
| South Sudan | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malawi sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and South Sudan sit 4th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Malawi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 4 | South Sudan | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malawi vs South Sudan?
- The Footlab model makes Malawi the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for South Sudan.
- Where and when is Malawi vs South Sudan played?
- Malawi vs South Sudan is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Bingu National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.