Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Jaunmārupes stadions, Jaunmārupe
The Footlab model makes JDFS Alberts the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Mārupe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts?
JDFS Alberts starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (1,574 vs 1,386).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mārupe have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; JDFS Alberts have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(home) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(away) | 3-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Riga FC II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Tukums II(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(away) | 3-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Mārupe win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 JDFS Alberts win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | JDFS Alberts 2-1 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Mārupe 2-1 JDFS Alberts | 1. Liga |
| May 2, 2025 | JDFS Alberts 1-0 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Aug 9, 2024 | JDFS Alberts 1-0 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Mārupe 0-1 JDFS Alberts | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: JDFS Alberts vs Mārupe on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; JDFS Alberts score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| JDFS Alberts | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mārupe sit 6th in 1. Liga (16 points from 10 matches) and JDFS Alberts sit 5th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 31 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts?
- The Footlab model makes JDFS Alberts the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Mārupe.
- Where and when is Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts played?
- Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Jaunmārupes stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.