Smiltene vs Metta / LU: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Tepera stadions, Smiltene
The Footlab model makes Metta / LU the favourite at 84%, against 10% for a draw and 6% for Smiltene. The most likely score is 1-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Smiltene vs Metta / LU?
Metta / LU is a heavy favourite: 1,649 Elo points against 1,257 — a 392-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Smiltene have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; Metta / LU have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 3-5 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 1-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 12-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Riga FC II(away) | 2-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 9-0 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Smiltene win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Metta / LU win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Metta / LU 8-0 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Metta / LU vs Smiltene on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Smiltene score 1.4 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Metta / LU score 4.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 86% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smiltene | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Metta / LU | 4.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Smiltene sit 13th in 1. Liga (4 points from 10 matches) and Metta / LU sit 1st (25 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 9 | 25 |
| 1 | Metta / LU | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 71 | 14 | 44 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Smiltene vs Metta / LU?
- The Footlab model makes Metta / LU the favourite at 84%, against 10% for a draw and 6% for Smiltene.
- Where and when is Smiltene vs Metta / LU played?
- Smiltene vs Metta / LU is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Tepera stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 86% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.