Riga Mariners vs Rīgas FS II: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 78%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for Rīgas FS II. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Riga Mariners vs Rīgas FS II?
Riga Mariners starts as the favourite with a 226-point Elo edge (1,622 vs 1,396).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riga Mariners have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Rīgas FS II have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 4-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 1-3 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Metta / LU(away) | 1-12 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Smiltene(away) | 5-3 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Tukums II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Riga Mariners win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Rīgas FS II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Rīgas FS II 1-2 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Riga Mariners 4-3 Rīgas FS II | 1. Liga |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Rīgas FS II 1-3 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rīgas FS II vs Riga Mariners on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Riga Mariners score 2.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rīgas FS II score 1.3 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga Mariners | 2.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Rīgas FS II | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Riga Mariners sit 4th in 1. Liga (22 points from 10 matches) and Rīgas FS II sit 10th (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 35 |
| 10 | Rīgas FS II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 8 |
| 11 | Rīgas FS II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 48 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Riga Mariners vs Rīgas FS II?
- The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 78%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for Rīgas FS II.
- Where and when is Riga Mariners vs Rīgas FS II played?
- Riga Mariners vs Rīgas FS II is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.