Mathare United vs Mombasa Elite: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Mathare United the favourite at 39%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Mombasa Elite. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mathare United wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs Mombasa Elite?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Mathare United (1,442) and Mombasa Elite (1,393).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mathare United vs Mombasa Elite
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Mombasa Elite
Not enough data to predict the Mombasa Elite lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 04:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Mombasa Elite have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | KCB(away) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Naivas(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Nzoia Sugar(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Mathare United wins, 0 draws, 0 Mombasa Elite wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | Mombasa Elite 1-2 Mathare United | Super League |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Mathare United 2-0 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mombasa Elite vs Mathare United on Apr 14, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mombasa Elite score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Mombasa Elite | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mathare United sit 14th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 2 matches) and Mombasa Elite sit 17th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mathare United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
A question about Mathare United vs Mombasa Elite?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs Mombasa Elite?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mathare United the favourite at 39%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Mombasa Elite.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs Mombasa Elite played?
- Mathare United vs Mombasa Elite is played on November 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.