Where and when is Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki played?

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 1Group I - 14Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

The Footlab model makes Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the favourite at 42%, against 21% for a draw and 37% for Lechia T. Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 2-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?

A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (1,752) and Lechia T. Mazowiecki (1,758).

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win42 %

Draw21 %

Lechia T. Mazowiecki win37 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki have 3 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Lechia T. Mazowiecki have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Olimpia Elbląg(home)	2-2	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 19, 2026	Swit(away)	2-1	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 14, 2026	Ząbkovia Ząbki(home)	3-2	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 8, 2026	Troszyn(away)	4-1	III Liga - Group 1
Jul 31, 2026	Jagiellonia II(home)	2-3	III Liga - Group 1

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	ŁKS Łódź II(home)	4-3	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 19, 2026	Mławianka Mława(away)	3-2	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 14, 2026	Łomża(home)	5-2	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 8, 2026	Wisła Płock II(away)	1-2	III Liga - Group 1
Jul 31, 2026	Weszlo(away)	1-2	III Liga - Group 1

How many goals should we expect?

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki score 2.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 6; Lechia T. Mazowiecki score 2.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	2.3	1.8	0	6/6	6/6
Lechia T. Mazowiecki	2.0	1.9	2	13/15	12/15

Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki sit 3rd in III Liga - Group 1 (10 points from 5 matches) and Lechia T. Mazowiecki sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	5	3	1	1	13	9	10
5	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	5	3	0	2	14	11	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?: The Footlab model makes Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the favourite at 42%, against 21% for a draw and 37% for Lechia T. Mazowiecki.
Where and when is Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki played?: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.