Merelinense vs Atlético Arcos: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio João Soares Vieira, São Pedro de Merelim
The Footlab model makes Merelinense the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Atlético Arcos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merelinense vs Atlético Arcos?
Merelinense starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merelinense have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Atlético Arcos have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2023 | Tirsense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Vilar de Perdizes(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Monção(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Pedras Salgadas(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Amarante(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2025 | Paredes(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Os Limianos(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Dumiense(away) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Brito(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Tirsense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
How many goals should we expect?
Merelinense score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Arcos score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merelinense | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Atlético Arcos | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merelinense vs Atlético Arcos?
- The Footlab model makes Merelinense the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Atlético Arcos.
- Where and when is Merelinense vs Atlético Arcos played?
- Merelinense vs Atlético Arcos is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio João Soares Vieira, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.