Mérida AD vs Ponferradina: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 23Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida
The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Ponferradina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Ponferradina?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,872) and Ponferradina (1,968).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Ponferradina have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alcorcon(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Osasuna II(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Real Madrid II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(away) | 1-4 | Primera División RFEF - Play Offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mérida AD win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Ponferradina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Ponferradina 4-1 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Mérida AD 0-0 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Mérida AD on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ponferradina score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mérida AD | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Ponferradina | 1.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mérida AD sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (52 points from 38 matches) and Ponferradina sit 4th (60 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ponferradina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 33 | 60 |
| 10 | Mérida AD | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 47 | 53 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Ponferradina?
- The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Ponferradina.
- Where and when is Mérida AD vs Ponferradina played?
- Mérida AD vs Ponferradina is played on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.