Mérida AD vs Ponferradina: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 23Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida
The Footlab AI model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ponferradina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mérida AD wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,526 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Ponferradina?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,882) and Ponferradina (1,963).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mérida AD vs Ponferradina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mérida AD
4-3-3- 21Raúl Beneit
- 19D. Sandoval
- 11S. El Ftouhi
- 6Jota
- 23Geovanny Almeida
- 8Martín Solar
- 2Alejandro Agustín
- 4Gonzalez Nacho
- 16Fito
- 5Hugo Sanz
- 1A. Csenterics
Ponferradina
4-3-3- 7C. Calderon
- 10Borja Valle
- 12Unai Sabroso Lorenzo
- 6Fede San Emeterio
- 8Arturo Molina
- 15O. Vacas
- 3Sergio Nieto
- 4A. Jelbat
- 24Koke
- 2David Andújar
- 1Álex Domínguez
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 07:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Ponferradina have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 3-5 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 3-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(away) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Mérida AD wins, 1 draw, 2 Ponferradina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ponferradina 1-0 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Ponferradina 4-1 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Mérida AD 0-0 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Mérida AD on Sep 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mérida AD score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ponferradina score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mérida AD | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Ponferradina | 0.9 | 1.1 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mérida AD sit 12th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (9 points from 7 matches) and Ponferradina sit 9th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
A question about Mérida AD vs Ponferradina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Ponferradina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ponferradina.
- Where and when is Mérida AD vs Ponferradina played?
- Mérida AD vs Ponferradina is played on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.