Merthyr Town vs Buxton: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 40Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Buxton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Merthyr Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,576 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Buxton?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,912) and Buxton (1,915).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Merthyr Town vs Buxton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Buxton
Not enough data to predict the Buxton lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 03:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Buxton have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Truro City(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(away) | 0-0 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | South Shields(home) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 0-4 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ashton United(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chester(home) | 3-1 | National League - North |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Merthyr Town win, 0 draws, 3 Buxton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Buxton 2-1 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Merthyr Town 1-3 Buxton | National League - North |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Buxton 1-2 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Buxton 2-0 Merthyr Town | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Buxton vs Merthyr Town on Aug 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Buxton score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Buxton | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 18th in National League - North (14 points from 11 matches) and Buxton sit 10th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Buxton | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 16 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
A question about Merthyr Town vs Buxton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Buxton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Buxton.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Buxton played?
- Merthyr Town vs Buxton is played on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.