Swansea vs Burnley: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
The Footlab model makes Swansea the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Burnley. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swansea vs Burnley?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Swansea (1,949) and Burnley (1,906).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Burnley have 0, 6 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Udinese(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torino(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Swansea win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Burnley win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Swansea 0-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Burnley 1-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Jan 2, 2023 | Swansea 1-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Burnley 4-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Feb 10, 2018 | Swansea 1-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| Nov 18, 2017 | Burnley 2-0 Swansea | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Swansea score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Burnley score 0.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Burnley | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swansea sit 8th in Championship (3 points from 1 matches) and Burnley sit 11th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Burnley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swansea vs Burnley?
- The Footlab model makes Swansea the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Swansea vs Burnley played?
- Swansea vs Burnley is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Swansea.com Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.