Minija vs Babrungas: prediction and stats
1 LygaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Kretingos dirbtinės dangos aikštė, Kretinga
The Footlab model makes Babrungas the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Minija. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Minija vs Babrungas?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Minija (1,494) and Babrungas (1,555).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Minija have 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Babrungas have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ekranas(away) | 5-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Be1 NFA(home) | 3-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Hegelmann II(away) | 4-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Žalgiris II(away) | 0-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Jonava(home) | 2-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tauras(home) | 1-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Neptūną Klaipėda(away) | 4-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dainava(away) | 1-2 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Transinvest 2(away) | 1-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ekranas(home) | 2-0 | 1 Lyga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Minija win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Babrungas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Babrungas 1-0 Minija | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Minija 0-1 Babrungas | 1 Lyga |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Babrungas 1-0 Minija | 1 Lyga |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Minija 0-4 Babrungas | 1 Lyga |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Babrungas 0-0 Minija | 1 Lyga |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Minija 1-3 Babrungas | 1 Lyga |
How many goals should we expect?
Minija score 2.2 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Babrungas score 1.6 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minija | 2.2 | 0.5 | 7 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Babrungas | 1.6 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Minija sit 1st in 1 Lyga (52 points from 20 matches) and Babrungas sit 2nd (52 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minija | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 11 | 52 |
| 2 | Babrungas | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 7 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Minija vs Babrungas?
- The Footlab model makes Babrungas the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Minija.
- Where and when is Minija vs Babrungas played?
- Minija vs Babrungas is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Kretingos dirbtinės dangos aikštė, in the 1 Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.