Jonava vs BFA: prediction and stats
1 LygaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas, Jonava
The Footlab model makes BFA the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Jonava. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jonava vs BFA?
BFA starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,408 vs 1,288).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jonava have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; BFA have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FA Šiauliai II(home) | 0-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris II(away) | 1-2 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ekranas(home) | 1-2 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Be1 NFA(away) | 2-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Garliava(home) | 1-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Neptūną Klaipėda(home) | 2-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dainava(away) | 0-0 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Transinvest 2(home) | 4-2 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FA Šiauliai II(away) | 0-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Be1 NFA(home) | 3-1 | 1 Lyga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Jonava win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 BFA win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | BFA 1-0 Jonava | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 26, 2025 | BFA 0-0 Jonava | 1 Lyga |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Jonava 0-1 BFA | 1 Lyga |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Jonava 0-3 BFA | 1 Lyga |
| May 21, 2023 | BFA 2-1 Jonava | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 27, 2021 | Jonava 6-0 BFA | 1 Lyga |
How many goals should we expect?
Jonava score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; BFA score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonava | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| BFA | 1.6 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jonava sit 10th in 1 Lyga (23 points from 21 matches) and BFA sit 7th (35 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | BFA | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 29 | 35 |
| 10 | Jonava | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 27 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jonava vs BFA?
- The Footlab model makes BFA the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Jonava.
- Where and when is Jonava vs BFA played?
- Jonava vs BFA is played on October 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas, in the 1 Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.