Where and when is Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo played?

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo is played on October 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Allianz Field, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota

Minnesota United FC

Houston Dynamo

The Footlab model makes Minnesota United FC the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Houston Dynamo. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?

A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Minnesota United FC (1,790) and Houston Dynamo (1,837).

Minnesota United FC win42 %

Draw27 %

Houston Dynamo win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Minnesota United FC have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Houston Dynamo have 10, 3 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Minnesota United FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	San Jose Earthquakes(away)	5-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 20, 2026	Atlanta United FC(home)	1-2	Major League Soccer
Aug 16, 2026	Real Salt Lake(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 12, 2026	Atlante FC(home)	3-1	Leagues Cup
Aug 8, 2026	Tigres UANL(away)	0-0	Leagues Cup

Houston Dynamo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	St. Louis City(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer
Aug 20, 2026	Vancouver Whitecaps(away)	1-0	Major League Soccer
Aug 16, 2026	Los Angeles Galaxy(home)	1-0	Major League Soccer
Aug 8, 2026	New England Revolution(away)	2-0	Major League Soccer
Aug 2, 2026	Sporting Kansas City(away)	2-0	Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Minnesota United FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Houston Dynamo win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jun 26, 2025	Minnesota United FC 3-1 Houston Dynamo	Major League Soccer
May 15, 2025	Houston Dynamo 2-0 Minnesota United FC	Major League Soccer
Jul 14, 2024	Houston Dynamo 1-1 Minnesota United FC	Major League Soccer
Apr 14, 2024	Minnesota United FC 1-2 Houston Dynamo	Major League Soccer
Jul 13, 2023	Houston Dynamo 0-3 Minnesota United FC	Major League Soccer
May 24, 2023	Houston Dynamo 4-0 Minnesota United FC	US Open Cup

Last archived meeting: Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo on Jun 26, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Minnesota United FC score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Houston Dynamo score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Minnesota United FC	1.5	1.5	2	12/15	9/15
Houston Dynamo	1.7	0.7	8	6/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Minnesota United FC sit 10th in Major League Soccer (28 points from 21 matches) and Houston Dynamo sit 2nd (38 points from 21 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
10	Minnesota United FC	21	7	7	7	27	29	28

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?: The Footlab model makes Minnesota United FC the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Houston Dynamo.
Where and when is Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo played?: Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo is played on October 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Allianz Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.