Match

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota

Minnesota United FCHouston Dynamo

The Footlab AI model makes Houston Dynamo the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Minnesota United FC. The most likely score is 1-1. If Houston Dynamo wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?

A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Minnesota United FC (1,839) and Houston Dynamo (1,905).

34%26%40%
Minnesota United FC winDrawHouston Dynamo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Minnesota United FC

3-4-1-2
  1. 9K. Yeboah
  2. 22Marcus Caldeira
  1. 20W. Trapp
  2. 13A. Markanich
  3. 3K. Duncan
  4. 30O. Gene
  5. 8T. Chancalay
  1. 23M. Duggan
  2. 15M. Boxall
  3. 28J. Díaz
  1. 12D. Callender

Houston Dynamo

4-4-2
  1. 20Guilherme
  2. 30A. Bouzat
  1. 19M. Bogusz
  2. 6Artur
  3. 16H. Herrera
  4. 24A. Ibrahim
  1. 11L. Ennali
  2. 5Lucas Halter
  3. 21F. Negri
  4. 3Antônio Carlos
  1. 31J. Bond

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:47 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Minnesota United FC have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Houston Dynamo have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Minnesota United FC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 27, 2026Seattle Sounders(away)1-3Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2026Los Angeles Galaxy(home)2-3Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2026St. Louis City(away)2-4Major League Soccer
Sep 10, 2026FC Dallas(home)1-2Major League Soccer
Sep 6, 2026Portland Timbers(away)4-5Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 27, 2026Sporting Kansas City(home)0-2Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2026FC Cincinnati(home)2-2Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2026San Jose Earthquakes(away)0-1Major League Soccer
Sep 10, 2026Real Salt Lake(home)2-1Major League Soccer
Sep 5, 2026Charlotte(away)0-0Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Minnesota United FC wins, 1 draw, 3 Houston Dynamo wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 26, 2025Minnesota United FC 3-1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
May 15, 2025Houston Dynamo 2-0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Jul 14, 2024Houston Dynamo 1-1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Apr 14, 2024Minnesota United FC 1-2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Jul 13, 2023Houston Dynamo 0-3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
May 24, 2023Houston Dynamo 4-0 Minnesota United FCUS Open Cup

Last archived meeting: Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo on Jun 26, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Minnesota United FC score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Houston Dynamo score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Minnesota United FC1.72.0213/1511/15
Houston Dynamo1.30.785/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Minnesota United FC sit 14th in Major League Soccer (29 points from 27 matches) and Houston Dynamo sit 5th (44 points from 27 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5Houston Dynamo271359343244
14Minnesota United FC277812404929

A question about Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?
The Footlab AI model makes Houston Dynamo the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Minnesota United FC.
Where and when is Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo played?
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo is played on October 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Allianz Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo

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