Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota
The Footlab model makes Minnesota United FC the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Los Angeles Galaxy. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Minnesota United FC (1,804) and Los Angeles Galaxy (1,798).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Minnesota United FC have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Los Angeles Galaxy have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Minnesota United FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Los Angeles Galaxy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy 1-2 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Minnesota United FC 2-2 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 Minnesota United FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Los Angeles Galaxy 6-2 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 8, 2024 | Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Minnesota United FC on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Minnesota United FC score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Los Angeles Galaxy score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Minnesota United FC sit 11th in Major League Soccer (25 points from 20 matches) and Los Angeles Galaxy sit 10th (25 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 30 | 25 |
| 11 | Minnesota United FC | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 28 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- The Footlab model makes Minnesota United FC the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Los Angeles Galaxy.
- Where and when is Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy played?
- Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy is played on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Allianz Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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