New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Yankee Stadium, New York City
The Footlab model makes New York City FC the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for New York Red Bulls. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate New York City FC (1,830) and New York Red Bulls (1,747).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New York City FC have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; New York Red Bulls have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 3-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Charlotte(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 New York City FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 New York Red Bulls win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | New York Red Bulls 1-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 29, 2026 | New York Red Bulls 1-3 New York City FC | US Open Cup |
| Sep 27, 2025 | New York Red Bulls 2-3 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| May 17, 2025 | New York City FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| Nov 23, 2024 | New York City FC 0-2 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 28, 2024 | New York Red Bulls 1-5 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
New York City FC score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; New York Red Bulls score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| New York Red Bulls | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
New York City FC sit 7th in Major League Soccer (26 points from 20 matches) and New York Red Bulls sit 8th (25 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | New York City FC | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 42 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- The Footlab model makes New York City FC the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for New York Red Bulls.
- Where and when is New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls played?
- New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls is played on September 18, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Yankee Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026New England RevolutionvsOrlando City SC
- Sep 19, 2026CF MontrealvsColumbus Crew
- Sep 19, 2026San Jose EarthquakesvsLos Angeles FC
- Sep 19, 2026DC UnitedvsCharlotte
- Sep 20, 2026St. Louis CityvsToronto FC
- Sep 20, 2026FC DallasvsAustin
- Sep 20, 2026Houston DynamovsFC Cincinnati
- Sep 20, 2026Sporting Kansas CityvsPhiladelphia Union