FC Dallas vs Austin: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
The Footlab model makes FC Dallas the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Austin. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Dallas vs Austin?
FC Dallas starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,903 vs 1,765).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Dallas have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Austin have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(away) | 4-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Austin(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Toluca(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Club Queretaro(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Club America(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Dallas win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Austin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Austin 1-2 FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 14, 2025 | FC Dallas 2-0 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Austin 1-1 FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 18, 2024 | FC Dallas 3-1 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| May 12, 2024 | FC Dallas 2-1 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Austin 2-1 FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Dallas score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Austin score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Austin | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Dallas sit 5th in Major League Soccer (33 points from 20 matches) and Austin sit 14th (20 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Dallas | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 29 | 33 |
| 14 | Austin | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 39 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Dallas vs Austin?
- The Footlab model makes FC Dallas the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Austin.
- Where and when is FC Dallas vs Austin played?
- FC Dallas vs Austin is played on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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