San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)PayPal Park, San Jose, California
The Footlab model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Los Angeles FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?
Los Angeles FC starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,949 vs 1,815).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Jose Earthquakes have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Los Angeles FC have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 0-4 | Major League Soccer |
| May 24, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 3-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Diego(home) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Club Queretaro(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Toluca(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 San Jose Earthquakes win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Los Angeles FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Los Angeles FC 1-4 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 14, 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 2-4 Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Los Angeles FC 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Los Angeles FC 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Los Angeles FC 3-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2024 | Los Angeles FC 4-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Leagues Cup |
Last archived meeting: Los Angeles FC vs San Jose Earthquakes on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Jose Earthquakes score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Los Angeles FC score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Los Angeles FC | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in Major League Soccer (33 points from 19 matches) and Los Angeles FC sit 3rd (34 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?
- The Footlab model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Los Angeles FC.
- Where and when is San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC played?
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at PayPal Park, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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