MVV vs De Graafschap: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 31Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab AI model makes De Graafschap the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1. If De Graafschap wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,390 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs De Graafschap?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate MVV (1,585) and De Graafschap (1,680).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for MVV vs De Graafschap
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
MVV
4-2-3-1- 9T. Vinogradac
- 7L. Daneels
- 10O. Dumont
- 16R. Klaasen
- 18E. Sierra
- 24N. El Hamdaoui
- 6F. Dicke
- 17S. Wegen
- 22Sven Bouland
- 21D. Asante
- 1H. Wentges
De Graafschap
4-2-3-1- 9J. Kania
- 8D. Warmerdam
- 21K. Symons
- 10F. de Jong
- 7Bjorn van Zijl
- 23M. Diemers
- 3R. Besselink
- 16N. Martens
- 2J. Wieckhoff
- 15T. Kok
- 1T. Wieggers
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:15 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; De Graafschap have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 1-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Waalwijk(away) | 1-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | NAC Breda(home) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 MVV win, 3 draws, 2 De Graafschap wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | MVV 3-3 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 22, 2025 | De Graafschap 0-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 22, 2025 | De Graafschap 0-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 8, 2024 | MVV 0-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 26, 2024 | De Graafschap 3-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 24, 2023 | MVV 1-2 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.3 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; De Graafschap score 1.6 and concede 3.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| De Graafschap | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MVV sit 7th in Eerste Divisie (16 points from 10 matches) and De Graafschap sit 16th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MVV | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 16 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 11 |
A question about MVV vs De Graafschap?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs De Graafschap?
- The Footlab AI model makes De Graafschap the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for MVV.
- Where and when is MVV vs De Graafschap played?
- MVV vs De Graafschap is played on March 20, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.