Match

Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka

Cerezo OsakaKashima

The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima?

Kashima starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (2,160 vs 2,019).

Cerezo Osaka win33 %
Draw26 %
Kashima win41 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Cerezo Osaka
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026FC Gifu(home)3-1Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Shimizu S-pulse(home)1-0J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Avispa Fukuoka(away)0-3J1 League
Aug 8, 2026Fagiano Okayama(home)2-1J1 League
Jul 29, 2026Borussia Dortmund(home)1-0Friendlies Clubs
Kashima
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Suzuka Unlimited(home)3-0Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Avispa Fukuoka(home)3-2J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Nagoya Grampus(home)2-1J1 League
Aug 7, 2026Yokohama F. Marinos(away)4-3J1 League
Jul 15, 2026Vegalta Sendai(home)5-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cerezo Osaka win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Kashima win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 23, 2025Kashima 3-1 Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
Apr 12, 2025Cerezo Osaka 1-0 KashimaJ1 League
Nov 30, 2024Cerezo Osaka 0-2 KashimaJ1 League
Mar 2, 2024Kashima 1-1 Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
Sep 16, 2023Kashima 1-0 Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
May 7, 2023Cerezo Osaka 0-1 KashimaJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka on Sep 23, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Cerezo Osaka1.91.1410/159/15
Kashima2.01.086/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Cerezo Osaka sit 6th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Kashima3300969
6Cerezo Osaka3201346

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima?
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Cerezo Osaka.
Where and when is Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima played?
Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima is played on April 17, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Cerezo Osaka and Kashima

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