Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima?
Kashima starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (2,160 vs 2,019).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Suzuka Unlimited(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cerezo Osaka win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Kashima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2025 | Kashima 3-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Kashima | J1 League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Cerezo Osaka 0-2 Kashima | J1 League |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Kashima 1-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Kashima 1-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| May 7, 2023 | Cerezo Osaka 0-1 Kashima | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka on Sep 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Kashima | 2.0 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerezo Osaka sit 6th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima?
- The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Cerezo Osaka.
- Where and when is Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima played?
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima is played on April 17, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 16, 2027Sanfrecce HiroshimavsFC Tokyo
- Apr 17, 2027Shimizu S-pulsevsNagoya Grampus
- Apr 17, 2027V-varen NagasakivsVissel Kobe
- Apr 17, 2027Gamba OsakavsJEF United Chiba
- Apr 17, 2027Kawasaki FrontalevsTokyo Verdy
- Apr 17, 2027Yokohama F. MarinosvsKashiwa Reysol
- Apr 17, 2027Mito HollyhockvsKyoto Sanga
- Apr 17, 2027Fagiano OkayamavsUrawa