Slivnishki geroy vs Natsional Sofia: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Slivnitsa
The Footlab model makes Slivnishki geroy the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Natsional Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Slivnishki geroy vs Natsional Sofia?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Slivnishki geroy (1,420) and Natsional Sofia (1,463).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Slivnishki geroy have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Natsional Sofia have 3, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia II(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Slavia Sofia II(away) | 2-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Botev Ihtiman(home) | 2-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kyustendil(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 30, 2026 | Slavia Sofia II(home) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strumska Slava(home) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oborishte(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bansko(home) | 2-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Rilski Sportist(home) | 3-4 | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Slivnishki geroy score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slivnishki geroy | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Natsional Sofia | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 5/9 | 8/9 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Slivnishki geroy sit 8th in Third League - Southwest (6 points from 4 matches) and Natsional Sofia sit 17th (1 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Slivnishki geroy vs Natsional Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Slivnishki geroy the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Natsional Sofia.
- Where and when is Slivnishki geroy vs Natsional Sofia played?
- Slivnishki geroy vs Natsional Sofia is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Balkan BotevgradvsCSKA Sofia III
- Oct 10, 2026Botev IhtimanvsOborishte
- Oct 10, 2026KyustendilvsStrumska Slava
- Oct 10, 2026Septemvri SimitlivsBelasitsa
- Oct 10, 2026KostinbrodvsChavdar Etropole
- Oct 10, 2026Septemvri Sofia IIvsPirin Razlog
- Oct 10, 2026Levski Sofia IIvsFK Minyor Pernik
- Oct 10, 2026Slavia Sofia IIvsBansko