Natsional Sofia vs Slavia Sofia II: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Slavia Sofia II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Natsional Sofia vs Slavia Sofia II?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Natsional Sofia (1,463) and Slavia Sofia II (1,481).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Natsional Sofia have 3 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Slavia Sofia II have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strumska Slava(home) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oborishte(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bansko(home) | 2-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Rilski Sportist(home) | 3-4 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kostinbrod(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Slivnishki geroy(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia II(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia II(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 30, 2026 | Slivnishki geroy(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Southwest |
How many goals should we expect?
Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 9; Slavia Sofia II score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natsional Sofia | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 5/9 | 8/9 |
| Slavia Sofia II | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Natsional Sofia sit 17th in Third League - Southwest (1 points from 4 matches) and Slavia Sofia II sit 16th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Slavia Sofia II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Natsional Sofia vs Slavia Sofia II?
- The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Slavia Sofia II.
- Where and when is Natsional Sofia vs Slavia Sofia II played?
- Natsional Sofia vs Slavia Sofia II is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026BanskovsSeptemvri Simitli
- Sep 19, 2026OborishtevsStrumska Slava
- Sep 19, 2026Balkan BotevgradvsSlivnishki geroy
- Sep 19, 2026FK Minyor PernikvsKyustendil
- Sep 19, 2026BelasitsavsKostinbrod
- Sep 19, 2026Chavdar EtropolevsLevski Sofia II
- Sep 19, 2026Pirin RazlogvsBotev Ihtiman
- Sep 19, 2026CSKA Sofia IIIvsSeptemvri Sofia II