Newport County vs Shrewsbury: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab model makes Newport County the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Shrewsbury. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Newport County (1,712) and Shrewsbury (1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Shrewsbury have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barnet(home) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Hereford(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Newport County win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Shrewsbury win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Newport County 1-0 Shrewsbury | League Two |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Shrewsbury 1-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Jan 31, 2015 | Newport County 0-1 Shrewsbury | League Two |
| Sep 20, 2014 | Shrewsbury 0-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Nov 12, 2011 | Newport County 0-1 Shrewsbury | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Newport County vs Shrewsbury on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Shrewsbury score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Shrewsbury | 0.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 11th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Shrewsbury sit 24th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| 24 | Shrewsbury | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
- The Footlab model makes Newport County the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Shrewsbury.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Shrewsbury played?
- Newport County vs Shrewsbury is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.