Newport County vs Shrewsbury: prediction and stats
League TwoMatchday 22Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab AI model makes Newport County the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Shrewsbury. The most likely score is 1-1. If Newport County wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,206 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Newport County (1,909) and Shrewsbury (1,872).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newport County vs Shrewsbury
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newport County
4-2-3-1- 28K. Etete
- 10H. Biggins
- 6C. Brennan
- 20Y. Bamba
- 8M. Smith
- 18A. Lewis
- 5L. Jenkins
- 4K. Cameron
- 34D. Sassi
- 16M. Jacob
- 1J. Wright
Shrewsbury
3-4-1-2- 9G. Lloyd
- 13J. Davison
- 10T. Sang
- 11K. Berkoe
- 2L. Hoole
- 7J. Turner-Cooke
- 18K. M. Brown
- 6S. Stubbs
- 5W. Boyle
- 3J. Ruffels
- 1William Michael Brook
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 09:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Shrewsbury have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 3-1 | FA Cup |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Crystal Palace U21(home) | 1-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 4-1 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Everton U21(home) | 2-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 3-3 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Newport County win, 1 draw, 3 Shrewsbury wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Newport County 1-0 Shrewsbury | League Two |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Shrewsbury 1-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Jan 31, 2015 | Newport County 0-1 Shrewsbury | League Two |
| Sep 20, 2014 | Shrewsbury 0-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Nov 12, 2011 | Newport County 0-1 Shrewsbury | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Newport County vs Shrewsbury on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Shrewsbury score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.4 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Shrewsbury | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 14th in League Two (19 points from 15 matches) and Shrewsbury sit 10th (21 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 21 |
| 14 | Newport County | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
A question about Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Shrewsbury?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newport County the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Shrewsbury.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Shrewsbury played?
- Newport County vs Shrewsbury is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.