Newport County vs Barnet: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab model makes Barnet the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Barnet?
Barnet starts as the favourite with a 176-point Elo edge (1,887 vs 1,712).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Barnet have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Arsenal U21(home) | 5-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Newport County win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Barnet win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Barnet 1-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Newport County 0-0 Barnet | League Two |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Barnet 2-2 Newport County | League Cup |
| Dec 12, 2023 | Barnet 1-4 Newport County | FA Cup |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Newport County 1-1 Barnet | FA Cup |
| Apr 21, 2018 | Barnet 2-0 Newport County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Barnet vs Newport County on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Barnet score 2.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Barnet | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 11th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Barnet sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Barnet?
- The Footlab model makes Barnet the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Barnet played?
- Newport County vs Barnet is played on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.