Northampton vs Port Vale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 43Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northampton vs Port Vale?
Port Vale starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,786 vs 1,662).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northampton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Port Vale have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Northampton win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Port Vale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Northampton 0-1 Port Vale | League One |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Port Vale 0-0 Northampton | League One |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Northampton 2-0 Port Vale | League One |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Port Vale 1-0 Northampton | League One |
| Feb 12, 2022 | Port Vale 0-0 Northampton | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2021 | Northampton 1-0 Port Vale | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Northampton vs Port Vale on Feb 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northampton sit 18th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Port Vale sit 20th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northampton vs Port Vale?
- The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Northampton vs Port Vale played?
- Northampton vs Port Vale is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Sixfields Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.