Where and when is Noteć Czarnków vs Flota Świnoujście played?

Noteć Czarnków vs Flota Świnoujście is played on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Noteć Czarnków, in the III Liga - Group 2.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Noteć Czarnków vs Flota Świnoujście: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 2Group II - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Noteć Czarnków, Czarnków

Noteć Czarnków

Flota Świnoujście

The Footlab model makes Noteć Czarnków the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Flota Świnoujście. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Noteć Czarnków vs Flota Świnoujście?

A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Noteć Czarnków (1,791) and Flota Świnoujście (1,722).

Noteć Czarnków win43 %

Draw25 %

Flota Świnoujście win32 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Noteć Czarnków have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Flota Świnoujście have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Noteć Czarnków
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Elana Toruń(home)	3-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 19, 2026	Kalisz(away)	1-0	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 14, 2026	Unia Swarzędz(away)	3-0	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 8, 2026	Grom Nowy Staw(home)	0-2	III Liga - Group 2
Jul 31, 2026	Gedania Gdansk(away)	3-5	III Liga - Group 2

Flota Świnoujście
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Chemik Bydgoszcz(away)	1-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 19, 2026	Victoria Września(home)	5-0	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 15, 2026	Bałtyk Koszalin(away)	2-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 8, 2026	Kotwica Kórnik(home)	2-0	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 1, 2026	Kalisz(home)	0-1	III Liga - Group 2

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Noteć Czarnków win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Flota Świnoujście win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 25, 2026	Flota Świnoujście 2-4 Noteć Czarnków	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 2, 2025	Noteć Czarnków 1-1 Flota Świnoujście	III Liga - Group 2
Mar 29, 2025	Noteć Czarnków 4-0 Flota Świnoujście	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 31, 2024	Flota Świnoujście 2-1 Noteć Czarnków	III Liga - Group 2
Apr 20, 2024	Noteć Czarnków 2-3 Flota Świnoujście	III Liga - Group 2
Sep 23, 2023	Flota Świnoujście 1-3 Noteć Czarnków	III Liga - Group 2

Last archived meeting: Flota Świnoujście vs Noteć Czarnków on Mar 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Noteć Czarnków score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Flota Świnoujście score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Noteć Czarnków	1.7	1.3	4	7/15	9/15
Flota Świnoujście	1.3	1.3	4	7/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Noteć Czarnków sit 7th in III Liga - Group 2 (9 points from 5 matches) and Flota Świnoujście sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Flota Świnoujście	5	3	1	1	10	3	10
7	Noteć Czarnków	5	3	0	2	10	8	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Noteć Czarnków vs Flota Świnoujście?: The Footlab model makes Noteć Czarnków the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Flota Świnoujście.
Where and when is Noteć Czarnków vs Flota Świnoujście played?: Noteć Czarnków vs Flota Świnoujście is played on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Noteć Czarnków, in the III Liga - Group 2.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.