Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: prediction and stats
League CupRound of 64Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Nottingham Forest the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Leeds. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Nottingham Forest (2,150) and Leeds (2,153).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nottingham Forest have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Leeds have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Augsburg(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 4-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Nottingham Forest win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Leeds win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Nottingham Forest 3-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Jul 27, 2023 | Nottingham Forest 0-2 Leeds | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 4, 2023 | Leeds 2-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| Feb 5, 2023 | Nottingham Forest 1-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Feb 8, 2020 | Nottingham Forest 2-0 Leeds | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Leeds vs Nottingham Forest on Feb 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nottingham Forest score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Leeds | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
- The Footlab model makes Nottingham Forest the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Leeds.
- Where and when is Nottingham Forest vs Leeds played?
- Nottingham Forest vs Leeds is played on August 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at The City Ground, in the League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.