O Elvas vs São Roque (Açores): prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino, Elvas
The Footlab model makes O Elvas the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for São Roque (Açores). The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win O Elvas vs São Roque (Açores)?
O Elvas starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,862 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, O Elvas have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; São Roque (Açores) have 0, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nazarenos(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Fátima(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Moncarapachense(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Comércio Indústria(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | FC Serpa(home) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2024 | Lusitânia(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Lajense(away) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 27, 2020 | Estrela(home) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Torreense(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 24, 2016 | Caldas(home) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
O Elvas score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; São Roque (Açores) score 0.5 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O Elvas | 1.0 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| São Roque (Açores) | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0 | 2/6 | 4/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for O Elvas vs São Roque (Açores)?
- The Footlab model makes O Elvas the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for São Roque (Açores).
- Where and when is O Elvas vs São Roque (Açores) played?
- O Elvas vs São Roque (Açores) is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.