Where and when is Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki played?

Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki is played on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 1Group I - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Elbląg

Olimpia Elbląg

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

The Footlab model makes Lechia T. Mazowiecki the favourite at 53%, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Olimpia Elbląg. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?

Lechia T. Mazowiecki starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,758 vs 1,637).

Olimpia Elbląg win26 %

Draw21 %

Lechia T. Mazowiecki win53 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olimpia Elbląg have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Lechia T. Mazowiecki have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Olimpia Elbląg
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away)	2-2	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 19, 2026	Widzew II(home)	0-2	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 15, 2026	Olimpia Zambrów(away)	2-1	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 7, 2026	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.(home)	4-2	III Liga - Group 1
Jul 31, 2026	Wisła Płock II(home)	1-2	III Liga - Group 1

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	ŁKS Łódź II(home)	4-3	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 19, 2026	Mławianka Mława(away)	3-2	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 14, 2026	Łomża(home)	5-2	III Liga - Group 1
Aug 8, 2026	Wisła Płock II(away)	1-2	III Liga - Group 1
Jul 31, 2026	Weszlo(away)	1-2	III Liga - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Olimpia Elbląg win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 30, 2026	Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0-0 Olimpia Elbląg	III Liga - Group 1
Nov 15, 2025	Olimpia Elbląg 2-5 Lechia T. Mazowiecki	III Liga - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elbląg on May 30, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Olimpia Elbląg score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lechia T. Mazowiecki score 2.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Olimpia Elbląg	1.1	1.9	1	11/15	10/15
Lechia T. Mazowiecki	2.0	1.9	2	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Olimpia Elbląg sit 11th in III Liga - Group 1 (7 points from 5 matches) and Lechia T. Mazowiecki sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	5	3	0	2	14	11	9
11	Olimpia Elbląg	5	2	1	2	9	9	7

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?: The Footlab model makes Lechia T. Mazowiecki the favourite at 53%, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Olimpia Elbląg.
Where and when is Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki played?: Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki is played on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.